Cycling Physique

It is easy to assume that successful professional cyclists are all skinny little guys, but if you look at the data, it turns out that they have an average height of 1.80m and an average weight of around 68kg. If we are to believe the figures posted on ProCyclingStats, hardly any professional cyclists would be considered underweight. In fact, they would struggle to perform at the required level if they did not maintain a healthy weight.

Taller than you might think

According to a study published in 2013 and updated in 2019, the global average height of adult males born in 1996 was 1.71m, but there is considerable regional variation. The vast majority of professional cyclists come from Europe, North America, Russia and the Antipodes where men tend to be taller than those from Asia, Africa and South America. For the 41 Colombians averaging 1.73m, there are 85 Dutch riders with a mean height of 1.84m. See chart below.

Furthermore, road cycling involves a range of disciplines, including sprinting and time trialling, where size and raw power provide an advantage. The peloton includes larger sprinters alongside smaller climbers.

Not as light as expected

While 68kg for a 1.80m male is certainly slim, it equates to a body mass index of 21 (BMI = weight / (height)²), which is towards the middle of the recommended healthy range. BMI is not a sophisticated measure, as it does not distinguish between fat and muscle. Since muscle is more dense than fat and cyclists tend to have it a higher percentage of lean body mass, they will look slimmer than a lay person of equivalent height and weight. Nevertheless doctors use BMI as a guide and become concerned when it falls below 18.5.

Smaller Colombians and taller Dutch professional cyclists have similar BMIs

The chart includes over 1,100 professional cyclists, but very few pros would be considered underweight. The majority of riders have a BMI of between 20 and 22. Although Colombian riders (red) tend to be smaller, specialising in climbing, their average BMI of 20.8 is not that different from larger Dutch riders (orange) with a mean BMI of 21.2. The taller Colombians include the sprinters Hodeg, Gaviria and Molano.

Types of rider

Weights and heights of a sample of top professional cyclists

This chart shows the names of a sample of top riders. All-out sprinters tend to have a BMI of around 24, even if they are small like Caleb Ewan. Sprints at the end of more rolling courses are likely to be won by riders with a BMI of 22, such as Greipel, van Avermaet, Sagan, Gaviria, Groenewegen, Bennet and Kwiatkowski. Time trial specialists like Dennis and Thomas have similar physiques, though Dumoulin and Froome are significantly lighter and remarkably similar to each other.

GC contenders Roglic, Kruiswijk and Gorka Izagirre are near the centre of the distribution with a BMI around 21, close to Viviani, who is unusually light for a sprinter. Pinot, Valverde, Dan Martin, the Yates brothers and Pozzovivo appear to be light for their heights. Interestingly climbers such as Quintana, Uran, Alaphilippe, Carapaz and Richie Porte all have a BMI of around 21, whereas Lopez is a bit heavier.

If the figures reported on ProCyclingStats are accurate, George Bennet and Emanuel Buchmann are significantly underweight. Weighting 58kg for a height of 1.80m does not seem to be conducive to strong performance, unless they are extraordinary physical specimens.

Conclusions

Professional cyclists are lean, but they would not be able to achieve the performance required if they were underweight. It is possible that the weights of individual riders might vary over time by a couple of kilos, moving them a small amount vertically on the chart, but scientific approaches are increasingly employed by expert nutritionists to avoid significant weight loss over longer stage races. The Jumbo Foodcoach app was developed alongside the Jumbo-Visma team and, working with Team Sky, James Morton strove to ensure that athletes fuel for the work required. Excessive weight loss can lead to a range of problems for health and performance.

References

Code used for this analysis

Sunflowers

Image in the style of @grandtourart

Last year, I experimented with using style transfer to automatically generate images in the style of @grandtourart. More recently I developed a more ambitious version of my rather simple bike identifier. The connection between these two projects is sunflowers. This blog describes how I built a flower identification app.

In the brilliant fast.ai Practical Deep Learning for Coders course, Jeremy Howard recommends downloading a publicly available dataset to improve one’s image categorisation skills. I decided to experiment with the 102 Category Flower Dataset, kindly made available by the Visual Geometry Group at Oxford University. In the original 2008 paper, the researchers used a combination of techniques to segment each image and characterise its features. Taking these as inputs to a Support Vector Machine classifier, their best model achieved an accuracy of 72.8%.

Annoyingly, I could not find a list linking the category numbers to the names of the flowers, so I scraped the page showing sample images and found the images in the labelled data.

Using exactly the same training, validation and test sets, my ResNet34 model quickly achieved an accuracy of 80.0%. I created a new branch of the GitHub repository established for the Bike Image model and linked this to a new web service on my Render account. The huge outperformance of the paper was satisfying, but I was sure that a better result was possible.

The Oxford researchers had divided their set of 8,189 labelled images into a training set and a validation set, each containing 10 examples of the 102 flowers. The remaining 6,149 images were reserved for testing. Why allocate less that a quarter of the data to training/validation? Perhaps this was due to limits on computational resources available at the time. In fact, the training and validation sets were so small that I was able to train the ResNet34 on my MacBook Pro’s CPU, within an acceptable time.

My plan to improve accuracy was to merge the test set into the training set, keeping aside the original validation set of 1,020 images for testing. This expanded training set of 7,261 images immediately failed on my MacBook, so I uploaded my existing model onto my PaperSpace GPU, with amazing results. Within 45 minutes, I had a model with 97.0% accuracy on the held-out test set. I quickly exported the learner and switched the link in the flowers branch of my GitHub repository. The committed changes automatically fed straight through to the web service on Render.

I discovered, when visiting the app on my phone, that selecting an image offers the option to take a photo and upload it directly for identification. Having exhausted the flowers in my garden, I have risked being spotted by neighbours as I furtively lean over their front walls to photograph the plants in their gardens.

Takeaways

It is very efficient to use smaller datasets and low resolution images for initial training. Save the model and then increase resolution. Often you can do this on a local CPU without even paying for access to a GPU. When you have a half decent model, upload it onto a GPU and continue training with the full dataset. Deploying the model as a web service on Render makes the model available to any device, including a mobile phone.

My final model is amazing… and it works for sunflowers.

References

Automated flower classification over a large number of classes, Maria-Elena Nilsback and Andrew Zisserman, Visual Geometry Group, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, United Kingdom, men,az@robots.ox.ac.uk

102 Flowers Jupyter notebook

Bike Identification as a web app

One of the first skills acquired in the latest version of the fast.ai course on deep learning is how to create a production version of an image classifier that runs as a web application. I decided to test this out on a set of images of road bikes, TT bikes and mountain bikes. To try it out, click on the image above or go to this website https://bike-identifier.onrender.com/ and select an image from your device. If you are using a phone, you can try taking photos of different bikes, then click on Analyse to see if they are correctly identified. Side-on images work best.

How does it work?

The first task was to collect some sample images for the three classes of bicycles I had chosen: road, TT and MTB. It turns out that there is a neat way to obtain the list of urls for a Google image search, by running some javascript in the console. I downloaded 200 images for each type of bike and removed any that could not be opened. This relatively small data set allowed me to do all the machine learning using the CPU on my MacBook Pro in less than an hour.

The fast.ai library provides a range of convenient ways to access images for the purpose of training a neural network. In this instance, I used the default option of applying transfer learning to a pre-trained ResNet34 model, scaling the images to 224 pixel squares, with data augmentation. After doing some initial training, it was useful to look at the images that had been misclassified, as many of these were incorrect images of motorbikes or cartoons or bike frames without wheels or TT bars. Taking advantage of a useful fast.ai widget, I removed unhelpful training images and trained the model further.

The confusion matrix showed that final version of my model was running at about 90% accuracy on the validation set, which was hardly world-beating, but not too bad. The main problem was a tendency to mistake certain road bikes for TT bikes. This was understandable, given the tendency for road bikes to become more aero, though it was disappointing when drop handlebars were clearly visible.

The next step was to make my trained network available as a web application. First I exported the models parameter settings to Dropbox. Then I forked a fast.ai repository into my GitHub account and edited the files to link to my Dropbox, switching the documentation appropriately for bicycle identification. In the final step, I set up a free account on Render to host a web service linked to my GitHub repository. This automatically updates for any changes pushed to the repository.

Amazingly, it all works!

References

fast.ai lesson 2

My GitHub repository, include Jupyter notebook

Betting on the Tour

Source: ASO Media

On the eve of the Tour de France, the pundits have made their predictions, but when the race is over, they will be long forgotten. One way of checking your own forecasts is to take a look at the odds offered on the betting markets. These are interesting, because they reflect the actions of people who have actually put money behind their views. In an efficient and liquid market, the latest prices ought to reflect all information available. This blog takes a look at the current odds, without wishing to encourage gambling in any way.

The website oddchecker.com collates the odds from a number of bookmakers across a large range of bets. It is helpful to convert the odds into predicted probabilities. Focussing on the overall winner,  Egan Bernal is the favourite at 5/2 (equating to a 29% probability taking the yellow jersey), followed by Geraint Thomas at 7/2 (22%) and Jakob Fuglsang at 6/1 (14%). This gives a 51% chance of a winner being one of the two Team Ineos riders. The three three leading contenders are some distance ahead of Adam Yates, Richie Porte, Thibaut Pinot and Nairo Quintana. Less fancied riders include Roman Bardet, Steven Kruijswijk, Rigoberto Uran, Mikel Landa, Enric Mas and Vincenzo Nibali. Anyone else is seen as an outsider.

Ups and downs

The odds change over time, as the markets evaluate the performance and changing fortunes of the riders. In the following chart shows the fluctuations in the average daily implied winning chances of the three current favourites since the beginning of the year, according to betfair.com.

The implied probability that Geraint Thomas would repeat last year’s win has hovered between 20% and 30%, spiking up a bit during the Tour of Romandie. Unfortunately, Chris Froome’s odds are no longer available, as he was most likely the favourite earlier this year. However, his crash on 11 June instantaneously improved the odds for other riders, particularly Thomas and Bernal, though expectations for the Welshman declined after he crashed out of the Tour de Suisse on 18 June.

The betting on Fuglsang spiked up sharply during the Tirreno Adriatico, where he won a stage and came 3rd on GC, and the Tour of the Basque country, where he finished strongly. Apparently, his three podium results in the the Ardenne Classics had no effect on his chances of a yellow jersey, whereas his victory in the Critérium Dauphiné had a significant positive impact.

Egan Bernal, appeared from the shadows. At the beginning of the year, he was seen as a third string in Team Ineos. His victory in Paris Nice hardly registered on his odds for the Tour. But since Froome’s crash and Thomas’s departure from the Tour de Suisse, he became the bookies’ favourite.

With 65% of the money on the three main contenders, there are some pretty good odds available on other riders. A couple of crashes, an off day or a bit of bad luck could turn the race on its head. Clearly the Ineos and Astana teams are capable of protecting their GC contenders, but so too are Movistar, EF Education First, Michelton Scott, Groupama-FDJ, Bahrain Merida and others.

References

Code I used can be found here

Poetic interlude

Bojowocky – after Lewis Carroll

’Twas Brexit, and the slithy Gove

Did gyre and gimble in the wabe:

All mimsy were the Tory toves,

And the May’s slough outgrabe.

 

“Beware the Eurobloc, my son!

The jaws that bite, the claws that slay!

Beware the Donald Tusk, and shun

The frumious Barnier!”

 

He took his bafflegab in hand;

Long time the Franc zone foe he sought—

So rested he, blonde tresses free

And stood awhile in thought.

 

And, as in toffish thought he stood,

The Eurobloc, with eyes of flame,

Came whiffling through the Belgian wood,

And burbled as it came!

 

Bah, pish! Piffle whish! Yah boo to you

The bafflegab went snicker-snack!

He left it dead, and with its head

He went galumphing back.

 

“And hast thou slain the Eurobloc?

Come to my arms, my British boy!

No Farage day! Corbyn’s dismay!”

He chortled in his joy.

 

’Twas Brexit, and the slithy Gove

Did gyre and gimble in the wabe:

All mimsy were the Tory toves,

And the May’s slough outgrabe.

Strava – Tour de Richmond Park Clockwise

Screenshot 2019-05-22 at 15.24.51

Following my recent update on the Tour de Richmond Park leaderboard, a friend asked about the ideal weather conditions for a reverse lap, clockwise around the park. This is a less popular direction, because it involves turning right at each mini-roundabout, including Cancellara corner, where the great Swiss rouleur crashed in the 2012 London Olympics, costing him a chance of a medal.

An earlier analysis suggested that apart from choosing a warm day and avoiding traffic, the optimal wind direction for a conventional anticlockwise lap was a moderate easterly, offering a tailwind up Sawyers Hill. It does not immediately follow that a westerly wind would be best for a clockwise lap, because trees, buildings and the profile of the course affect the extent to which the wind helps or hinders a rider.

Currently there are over 280,000 clockwise laps recorded by nearly 35,000 riders, compared with more than a million anticlockwise laps by almost 55,000 riders. As before, I downloaded the top 1,000 entries from the leaderboard and then looked up the wind conditions when each time was set on a clockwise lap.

In the previous analysis, I took account of the prevailing wind direction in London. If wind had no impact, we would expect the distribution of wind directions for leaderboard entries to match the average distribution of winds over the year. I defined the wind direction advantage to be the difference between these two distributions and checked if it was statistically significant. These are the results for the clockwise lap.

RoseSegmentBarSegmentclockwise

The wind direction advantage was significant (at p=1.3%). Two directions stand out. A westerly provides a tailwind on the more exposed section of the park between Richmond Gate and Roehampton, which seems to be a help, even though it is largely downhill. A wind blowing from the NNW would be beneficial between Roehampton and Robin Hood Gate, but apparently does not provide much hindrance on the drag from Kingston Gate up to Richmond, perhaps because this section of the park is more sheltered. The prevailing southwesterly wind was generally unfavourable to riders setting PBs on a clockwise lap.

The excellent mywindsock web site provides very good analysis for avid wind dopers. This confirms that the wind was blowing predominantly from the west for the top ten riders on the leaderboard, including the KOM, though the wind strength was generally light.

The interesting thing about this exercise is that it demonstrates a convergence between our online and our offline lives, as increasing volumes of data are uploaded from mobile sensors. A detailed analysis of each section of the million laps riders have recorded for Richmond Park could reveal many subtleties about how the wind flows across the terrain, depending on strength and direction. This could be extended across the country or globally, potentially identifying local areas where funnelling effects might make a wind turbine economically viable.

References

Jupyter notebook for calculations

Can self-driving cars detect cyclists?

Screenshot 2019-05-10 at 14.05.59

Self-driving cars employ sophisticated software to interpret the world around them. How do these systems work? And how good are they at detecting cyclists? Can cyclists feel safe sharing roads with an increasing number of vehicles that make use of these systems?

How hard is it to spot a cyclist?

Vehicles can use a range of detection systems, including cameras, radar and lidar.  Deep learning techniques have become very good at identifying objects in photographic images. So one important question is how hard is it to spot a cyclist in a photo taken from a moving vehicle?

Researchers at Tsinghua University, working in collaboration with Daimler, created a publicly available collection of dashboard camera photos, where humans have painstakingly drawn boxes around other road users. The data set is used by academics to benchmark the performance of their image recognition algorithms. The images are rather grey and murky, reflecting the cloudy and polluted atmosphere of the Chinese city location. It is striking that, in the majority of cases, the cyclists are very small, representing around 900 pixels out of the 2048 x 1024 images, i.e. less than 0.05% of the total area. For example, the cyclist in the middle of the image above is pretty hard to make out, even for a human.

Object-detecting neural networks are typically trained to identify the subject of a photo, which normally takes up are significant portion of the image. Finding a tall, thin segment containing a cyclist is significantly more difficult.

If you think about it, the cyclist taking up the largest percentage of a dash cam image will be riding across the direction of travel, directly in front of the vehicle, at which point it may be too late to take action. So a crucial aspect of any successful algorithm is to find more distant cyclists, before they are too close.

Setting up the problem

Taking advantage of skills acquired on the fast.ai course on deep learning, I decided to have a go at training a neural network to detect cyclists. Many of the images in the Tsinghua Daimler data set include multiple cyclists. In order to make the problem more manageable, I set out to find the single largest cyclist in each image.

If you are not interested in the technical bit, just scroll down to the results.

The technical bit

In order to save space on my drive, I downloaded about a third of the training set. The 3209 images were split 80:20 to create a training and validation sets. I also downloaded 641 unseen images that were excluded from training and used only for testing the final model.

I used transfer learning to fine-tune a neural network using a pre-trained ResNet34 backbone, with a customised head designed to generate four numbers representing the coordinates of a bounding box around the largest object in each image. All images were scaled down to 224 pixel squares, without cropping. Data augmentation added variation to the training images, including small rotations, horizontal flips and adjustments to lighting.

It took a couple of hours to train the network on my MacBook Pro, without needing to resort to a cloud-based GPU, to produce bounding boxes with an average error of just 12 pixels on each coordinate. The network had learned to do a pretty good job at detecting cyclists in the training set.

Results

The key step was to test my neural network on the set of 641 unseen images. The results were impressive: the average error on the bounding box coordinates was just 14 pixels. The network was surprisingly good at detecting cyclists.

oosImages

The 16 photos above were taken at random from the test set. The cyan box shows the predicted position of the largest cyclist in the image, while the white box shows the human annotation. There is a high degree of overlap for eleven cyclists 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 14, 15 and 16. Box 9 was close, falling between two similar sized riders, but 7 was a miss. The algorithm failed on the very distant cyclists in 1, 10 and 13. If you rank the photos, based on the size of the cyclist, we can see that the network had a high success rate for all but the smallest of cyclists.

In conclusion, as long as the cyclists were not too far away, it was surprisingly easy to detect riders pretty reliably, using a neural network trained over an afternoon.  With all the resources available to Google, Uber and the big car manufacturers, we can be sure that much more sophisticated systems have been developed. I did not consider, for example, using a sequence of images to detect motion or combining them with data about the motion of the camera vehicle. Nor did I attempt to distinguish cyclists from other road users, such as pedestrians or motorbikes.

After completing this project, I feel reassured that cyclists of the future will be spotted by self-driving cars. The riders in the data set generally did not wear reflective clothing and did not have rear lights. These basic safety measures make cyclists, particularly commuters, more obvious to all road users, whether human or AI.

Car manufacturers could potentially develop significant goodwill and credibility in their commitment to road safety by offering cyclists lightweight and efficient beacons that would make them more obvious to automated driving systems.

References

“A new benchmark for vision-based cyclist detection”, X. Li, F. Flohr, Y. Yang, H. Xiong, M. Braun, S. Pan, K. Li and D. M. Gavrila, in proceedings of IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium (IV), pages 1028-1033, June 2016

Link to Jupyter notebook