Which Strava KOMs will fall in the Tour of Flanders?

This series looking at Strava leaderboards now turns to the action in Belgium, where the spring classics season is under way. Greg Van Avermaet, Philipe Gilbert, Michal Kwiatkowski and Peter Sagan are among the riders in top form ahead of the Tour of Flanders, not forgetting former winners Tom Boonen, Alexander Kristoff and Stijn Devolder. This year’s race includes 18 climbs, finishing with a loop that takes in six famous ascents in the last 50km. Will the pros to be setting KOMs on these Hellingens?
Making the top 10 on any leaderboard, towards the end of a 260km race, sounds like a tall order. KOMs are more likely to fall on longer faster climbs where riders can benefit from drafting in a group. In fact the riders will be climbing the Oude-Kwaremont three times and the Paterberg twice, so the top times are more at risk on those two, if someone decides to make a strong attack. The weather forecast is good: sunny, about 16°C, with a light breeze from the WNW. The wind will be against the riders on the Taaienberg, but it will provide a small benefit on the other final hills, which happen to be ridden in directions between East and South.

Koppenberg

Surface: Cobbles, Distance: 444m, Avg Grade: 14.3%, Elevation Gain: 64m, Bearing: 104°

Rank	Name	Time	Date	Race
1	Reinardt Janse van Rensburg	00:01:27	19-Feb-14	–
2	Joris Van Der Auwera	00:01:28	01-Jan-10	–
2	gijsade holstege	00:01:28	01-Jan-10	–
2	Dries Devenyns	00:01:28	27-Nov-15	–
5	Cameron Bayly	00:01:30	06-Sep-15	–
6	Dylan Kennett	00:01:32	26-Jun-15	–
7	FOCUS Rides	00:01:34	01-Jan-10	–
7	Korneel De Viaene	00:01:34	06-Aug-15	–
7	Arjen Palstra	00:01:34	02-Apr-16	–
7	Korneel De Viaene	00:01:34	06-Aug-15	–

Pro rider van Rensburg holds the KOM up the Koppenberg, set on a pre-race recce. Dries Devenyns is not far behind, but none of the top ten times appear to have been set in races. Although there will be a weak tailwind, it seems unlikely that a new record will be set in this year’s Tour of Flanders.

Steenbeekdries

Surface: Cobbles, Distance: 724m, Avg Grade: 2.8%, Elevation Gain: 24m, Bearing: 121°

Rank	Name	Time	Date	Race
1	Niki Terpstra Racing	00:01:22	01-Apr-15	–
2	Jasper Stuyven	00:01:25	06-Apr-13	Flanders U23
2	Lawson Craddock	00:01:25	06-Apr-13	Flanders U23
4	Michal Kwiatkowski	00:01:26	01-Apr-16	–
5	Jered Gruber	00:01:27	06-Apr-12	–
5	Walter Eikelenboom	00:01:27	04-Aug-15	–
7	Pierre-Henri LECUISINIER	00:01:28	06-Apr-13	Flanders U23
7	Marcus Burghardt	00:01:28	02-Apr-15	Three Days of De Panne
9	Michael Schär	00:01:29	02-Apr-15	Three Days of De Panne
10	Stijn Steels	00:01:30	29-Mar-17	–

Two riders made the top ten in the 2015 edition of the Three Days of De Panne and three others in the Flanders Under 23 race in 2013. We can also see quick times in recce rides by Terpstra in 2015, Kwiatkowski, last year, and Steels this week. There’s a chance this KOM could go on Sunday.

Taaienberg

Surface: Cobbles, Distance: 639m, Avg Grade: 7.8%, Elevation Gain: 46m, Bearing: 262°

Rank	Name	Time	Date	Race
1	Daniel Oss	00:01:12	25-Mar-16	E3 Harelbeke
2	Jasper Stuyven	00:01:13	25-Feb-17	Omloop Het Nieuwsblad
3	AlliGator Junior	00:01:14	06-Mar-13	–
3	Edward Theuns	00:01:14	25-Feb-17	Omloop Het Nieuwsblad
3	Greg Van Avermaet	00:01:14	24-Mar-17	E3 Harelbeke
6	Wesley Van Dyck 2090874575184	00:01:15	28-Mar-17	Three Days of De Panne
7	Arnaud Demare	00:01:16	22-Mar-17	Dwars door Vlaanderen
7	Johnny Cecotto	00:01:16	22-Mar-17	Dwars door Vlaanderen
9	Jarl .	00:01:17	18-Mar-14	–
9	Bryan Coquard	00:01:17	24-Mar-17	E3 Harelbeke

This is another segment that is dominated by the pros and tends to be smashed in races.  The problem is that there will be a slight headwind, so this KOM will probably hold on Sunday.

Kruisberg (Oudestraat)

Surface: Asphalt, Distance: 1813m, Avg Grade: 4.9%, Elevation Gain: 89m, Bearing: 142°

Rank	Name	Time	Date	Race
1	Daniel Lloyd	00:04:03	03-Apr-11	Tour of Flanders
2	Cor ~~	00:04:05	03-Apr-11	Tour of Flanders
3	davide COM	00:04:06	03-Apr-11	Tour of Flanders
4	Jeremy Cameron Ⓥ	00:04:24	29-Jun-16	–
5	Pascal Eenkhoorn	00:05:00	13-Mar-16	–
6	Pieterjan Spyns	00:05:02	06-Jul-15	–
7	dylan de kok	00:05:03	21-Feb-14	–
8	Eloy Raas	00:05:04	21-Feb-14	–
9	Lenard Maes	00:05:06	21-Jul-15	–
10	kobe vdv	00:05:09	30-Mar-17	–

The KOM is held by GCN‘s Daniel Lloyd, set in the Tour of Flanders in 2011, in very similar weather conditions. The three leading times stand a long way ahead of the rest. It will be very interesting to see how the current pros perform on this climb. Daniel’s time could be at risk.

Oude-Kwaremont

Surface: Cobbles, Distance: 2509m, Avg Grade: 3.6%, Elevation Gain: 91m, Bearing: 163°

Rank	Name	Time	Date	Race
1	Niki Terpstra Racing	00:04:55	25-Mar-16	E3 Harelbeke
2	Daniel Oss	00:04:58	25-Mar-16	E3 Harelbeke
3	Tiesj Benoot	00:04:59	25-Mar-16	E3 Harelbeke
4	Nikolas Maes	00:05:01	23-Mar-16	Dwars door Vlaanderen
5	Michal Kwiatkowski	00:05:02	25-Mar-16	E3 Harelbeke
6	Scott Thwaites	00:05:04	23-Mar-16	Dwars door Vlaanderen
7	Greg Van Avermaet	00:05:06	28-Feb-16	Kuurne–Brussels–Kuurne
8	Oliver Naesen	00:05:07	24-Mar-17	E3 Harelbeke
9	Stijn Vandenbergh Racing	00:05:08	28-Mar-14	E3 Harelbeke
10	Antoine Duchesne	00:05:10	28-Feb-16	Kuurne–Brussels–Kuurne

The leaderboard of segment is packed with pro racing performances, led once again by Niki Terpstra. With the last ascent coming at a crucial time in this year’s Tour of Flanders, the KOM could fall again.

Paterberg

Surface: Cobbles, Distance: 358m, Avg Grade: 11.7%, Elevation Gain: 42m, Bearing: 96°

Rank	Name	Time	Date	Race
1	Eli Iserbyt	00:00:53	27-Jul-16	–
2	Dries Devenyns	00:00:54	19-Feb-14	–
2	mathias Declerck	00:00:54	01-Sep-16	–
4	Jarl .	00:00:55	23-Mar-14	–
5	Pascal Eenkhoorn	00:00:56	04-May-16	–
6	Joeri Calleeuw	00:00:57	24-Feb-14	–
6	Frederik Vandewiele	00:00:57	19-Mar-14	–
6	Antoine Loy	00:00:57	18-Jun-14	–
6	Aaron Midgley	00:00:57	20-Aug-14	–
6	Merten De Wever	00:00:57	06-May-15	–

This short, steep climb seems to be the target of specific KOM hunters. None of the top ten times were set in the big races. Although this will be the final place to attack in this year’s race, the riders will be fatigued by 247km of tough roads. The top time is likely to hold firm, especially if barriers are used to block smoother edges of the road.

Conclusion

KOMs to hold: Paterberg, Koppenberg, Taaienberg

KOMs at risk: Kruisberg, Oude-Kwaremont, Steenbeekdries

Watch out Dan!