On the eve of the Tour de France, the pundits have made their predictions, but when the race is over, they will be long forgotten. One way of checking your own forecasts is to take a look at the odds offered on the betting markets. These are interesting, because they reflect the actions of people who have actually put money behind their views. In an efficient and liquid market, the latest prices ought to reflect all information available. This blog takes a look at the current odds, without wishing to encourage gambling in any way.
The website oddchecker.com collates the odds from a number of bookmakers across a large range of bets. It is helpful to convert the odds into predicted probabilities. Focussing on the overall winner, Egan Bernal is the favourite at 5/2 (equating to a 29% probability taking the yellow jersey), followed by Geraint Thomas at 7/2 (22%) and Jakob Fuglsang at 6/1 (14%). This gives a 51% chance of a winner being one of the two Team Ineos riders. The three three leading contenders are some distance ahead of Adam Yates, Richie Porte, Thibaut Pinot and Nairo Quintana. Less fancied riders include Roman Bardet, Steven Kruijswijk, Rigoberto Uran, Mikel Landa, Enric Mas and Vincenzo Nibali. Anyone else is seen as an outsider.
Ups and downs
The odds change over time, as the markets evaluate the performance and changing fortunes of the riders. In the following chart shows the fluctuations in the average daily implied winning chances of the three current favourites since the beginning of the year, according to betfair.com.
The implied probability that Geraint Thomas would repeat last year’s win has hovered between 20% and 30%, spiking up a bit during the Tour of Romandie. Unfortunately, Chris Froome’s odds are no longer available, as he was most likely the favourite earlier this year. However, his crash on 11 June instantaneously improved the odds for other riders, particularly Thomas and Bernal, though expectations for the Welshman declined after he crashed out of the Tour de Suisse on 18 June.
The betting on Fuglsang spiked up sharply during the Tirreno Adriatico, where he won a stage and came 3rd on GC, and the Tour of the Basque country, where he finished strongly. Apparently, his three podium results in the the Ardenne Classics had no effect on his chances of a yellow jersey, whereas his victory in the Critérium Dauphiné had a significant positive impact.
Egan Bernal, appeared from the shadows. At the beginning of the year, he was seen as a third string in Team Ineos. His victory in Paris Nice hardly registered on his odds for the Tour. But since Froome’s crash and Thomas’s departure from the Tour de Suisse, he became the bookies’ favourite.
With 65% of the money on the three main contenders, there are some pretty good odds available on other riders. A couple of crashes, an off day or a bit of bad luck could turn the race on its head. Clearly the Ineos and Astana teams are capable of protecting their GC contenders, but so too are Movistar, EF Education First, Michelton Scott, Groupama-FDJ, Bahrain Merida and others.
Code I used can be found here